Arthur Hayes Bets Big on Bitcoin's 2026 Rebound: MSTR, Metaplanet, and Zcash as Key Plays
The crypto market is constantly evolving, and understanding the perspectives of seasoned industry experts is crucial for navigating its complexities. Arthur Hayes, CIO of Maelstrom, is making a bold bet on a significant liquidity rebound in 2026, arguing that Bitcoin’s underperformance in 2025 wasn’t a reflection of fundamental issues within the crypto space, but rather a consequence of broader macroeconomic factors. This analysis delves into Hayes’s latest insights, exploring his rationale for investing in MicroStrategy (MSTR), Japan’s Metaplanet, and Zcash (ZEC), and what these choices signal about his outlook for the future of Bitcoin and the digital asset landscape. Understanding these strategies is vital for investors seeking to position themselves for potential gains in the coming year.
Decoding 2025: Why Bitcoin Lagged Behind
Hayes challenges the conventional wisdom that often frames Bitcoin as either “digital gold” or a high-beta tech proxy. He contends that Bitcoin behaved as expected during a period of tightening financial conditions. However, he notes a divergence: while Bitcoin struggled, both gold and the Nasdaq 100 experienced gains. This divergence, according to Hayes, wasn’t a contradiction but a result of distinct driving forces. He believes gold’s rise was fueled by sovereign balance sheet accumulation, driven by distrust in US Treasury exposure and concerns about potential asset freezes. “If the US president steals your money, it’s an instant zero. Does it then matter what price you buy gold at?” he posits, highlighting the perceived safety of gold in a world of geopolitical uncertainty.
The Role of Industrial Policy in Equity Performance
Regarding equities, Hayes proposes an industrial policy interpretation of the AI boom. He suggests that both the US and China are strategically prioritizing “winning AI,” effectively reducing market discipline and contributing to the Nasdaq 100’s decoupling from dollar liquidity. This decoupling is a critical element in Hayes’s 2026 thesis: Bitcoin’s resurgence hinges on the return of expanding dollar liquidity. “Bitcoin … and dollar liquidity bottomed around the same time,” he states, emphasizing the strong correlation between the two.
The Three-Pillar Liquidity Thesis for 2026
Hayes’s optimistic outlook for 2026 is predicated on a substantial increase in dollar credit creation, which he identifies through three key channels:
- Federal Reserve Balance Sheet Expansion via Reserve Management Purchases (RMP): Hayes anticipates RMP will add at least $40 billion per month to the Fed’s balance sheet, with potential for further increases as government funding needs grow.
- Commercial Bank Lending to Strategic Industries: He expects banks to become more willing to extend loans to companies in strategically important sectors, particularly those with government equity stakes or offtake agreements, mitigating default risk.
- Lower Mortgage Rates Driven by MBS Purchases: Hayes points to directives from the Trump administration for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to purchase $200 billion in mortgage-backed securities (MBS), potentially lowering mortgage rates and unlocking a wealth effect.
He argues that quantitative tightening (QT) has already lost its dominance as a headwind, ending in December 2025, and the introduction of RMP signals a new era of balance sheet expansion. The combined effect of these three factors, Hayes believes, will create a favorable environment for Bitcoin to regain momentum.
Strategic Investments: MSTR, Metaplanet, and Zcash
Describing himself as a “degen speculator,” Hayes reveals that Maelstrom is already heavily invested, but he’s seeking further “MOAR risk” to capitalize on potential upside. Instead of relying on perpetuals or options, he’s strategically positioned through long positions in MicroStrategy (MSTR) and Metaplanet, leveraging their corporate balance sheets for amplified exposure.
MicroStrategy (MSTR): A Leveraged Bitcoin Play
Hayes’s rationale for investing in MSTR is based on a valuation-relative argument. He compares MSTR’s “DAT” (a proprietary metric) to Bitcoin’s price in dollars and finds the ratio near the low end of its two-year range, having significantly declined from its mid-2025 peak. He believes that if Bitcoin can surpass $110,000, investors will be incentivized to gain exposure through MSTR, benefiting from the company’s leveraged capital structure. MSTR currently trades at $179.33 (as of press time) and needs to overcome the 200-week EMA to confirm a bullish trend.
Metaplanet: Capitalizing on Yen-Denominated Bitcoin
Similarly, Hayes applies the same valuation-relative approach to Metaplanet, comparing its “DAT” to Bitcoin priced in yen. He believes Metaplanet offers a leveraged way to gain exposure to Bitcoin’s potential upside in the Japanese market. The key trigger for outperformance, as with MSTR, is Bitcoin reclaiming higher price levels.
Zcash (ZEC): A Contrarian Bet on Privacy
Hayes also highlights his continued accumulation of Zcash (ZEC), despite the departure of developers from Electric Coin Company (ECC). He dismisses the developer exodus as a bearish signal, arguing that they are likely to create more impactful products within their own for-profit entity. He views the sell-off as an opportunity to acquire ZEC at a discounted price from “weak hands.” He firmly believes in the long-term value proposition of Zcash’s privacy features.
Implications for Investors: Positioning for the 2026 Rebound
Arthur Hayes’s analysis provides a compelling framework for understanding the potential drivers of Bitcoin’s performance in 2026. His emphasis on dollar liquidity, coupled with his strategic investments in MSTR, Metaplanet, and Zcash, offers valuable insights for investors seeking to capitalize on the anticipated rebound. However, it’s crucial to remember that the crypto market is inherently volatile and subject to unforeseen events. Investors should conduct their own thorough research and consider their risk tolerance before making any investment decisions.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
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