Is a Bitcoin Reversal Imminent? Analyst Spotlights Bullish Signal Against Gold
After months of underperformance relative to gold, a veteran market analyst has identified a technical pattern suggesting a potential turning point for Bitcoin (BTC). This development arrives as investors reassess Bitcoin’s narrative as a “safe haven” asset, particularly in light of gold’s impressive gains. The Bitcoin-to-gold ratio has significantly declined, prompting questions about the future trajectory of both assets. This article delves into the technical indicators, market sentiment, and potential implications of this evolving dynamic, providing a comprehensive analysis for crypto enthusiasts and investors.
The Plunging Bitcoin-to-Gold Ratio: A Cause for Concern?
The Bitcoin-to-gold ratio has experienced a substantial drop, falling from 32 on October 5th to approximately 20 currently – a decrease of over 37%. This means that in early October, one Bitcoin could purchase roughly 32 ounces of gold, whereas now it can only buy around 20. The ratio’s decline has accelerated alongside gold’s rally and Bitcoin’s struggle to maintain levels above $100,000. This divergence raises concerns about Bitcoin’s ability to compete with traditional safe-haven assets like gold during periods of economic uncertainty.
Identifying a Bullish Divergence
Despite the overall downtrend, recent daily readings suggest a possible shift in momentum. On November 21st, the BTC/GOLD pair reached a low of 20, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 21.30. A subsequent low near December 1st came with a higher RSI reading of 26.83. Further confirmation arrived on December 26th, with another trough at 19 coinciding with an even higher RSI low of 32.21.
This sequence constitutes a bullish divergence on the daily timeframe for BTCUSD versus Gold. This pattern is closely watched by traders as it indicates that selling pressure may be easing, even as prices continue to fall. Michaël van de Poppe, a respected market analyst, described this divergence as “strong,” suggesting a potentially significant reversal.
Weekly RSI Signals Cooling Selling Pressure
The bullish signal is further reinforced when examining the weekly chart. The weekly RSI for the BTC/GOLD pair currently stands at approximately 31.85. This level hasn't been seen since the November 2022 sell-off triggered by the FTX collapse, which marked a bottom in that market cycle. Historically, similar RSI lows have also coincided with bottoms in 2015 and 2018.
Combining the daily bullish divergence with the low weekly RSI strengthens the argument that the downtrend may be losing momentum. However, it’s crucial to remember that past performance is not indicative of future results, and nothing is guaranteed.
Market Sentiment: Gold Surges While Bitcoin Struggles
Gold has experienced a remarkable rally, surging by over 70% in 2025. Conversely, Bitcoin experienced a 7% decline over the same period, according to some measures. As of today, Bitcoin is trading at $87,750, down 4.8% year-to-date. This disparity has fueled debate about Bitcoin’s “digital gold” narrative, as bullion continues to achieve historic gains.
Currently, short-term capital appears to be flowing into gold as a protective measure, with traders seeking shelter in the metal as it reaches new highs. However, long-term Bitcoin holders maintain their conviction in the cryptocurrency’s potential for substantial upside once risk appetite returns to the market. The question remains: can Bitcoin regain its footing and challenge gold’s dominance as a safe-haven asset?
BTCUSD is currently trading at $87,734 (Chart: TradingView).
The Role of Real World Assets (RWAs) in Bitcoin's Future
While the current narrative focuses on the Bitcoin vs. Gold comparison, it's important to consider the broader evolution of the crypto landscape. Charles Hoskinson, founder of Cardano, recently suggested that Real World Assets (RWAs) are key to unlocking a $10 trillion future for the crypto market. The tokenization of real-world assets – such as stocks, bonds, and real estate – could significantly expand the utility and adoption of blockchain technology, potentially driving renewed interest and investment into Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.
Looking Ahead: What Needs to Happen for a Reversal?
Market observers emphasize that the near-term outlook hinges on whether the BTC/GOLD ratio and price action can deliver follow-through above key resistance levels. Until a clear breakout occurs, signals will remain tentative. Investors should closely monitor these indicators and exercise caution when making investment decisions.
- Monitor the BTC/GOLD ratio: A sustained move above key resistance levels could signal a shift in momentum.
- Track Bitcoin's price action: Breaking above $100,000 would be a significant bullish signal.
- Stay informed about RWA developments: The growth of the RWA market could positively impact the broader crypto ecosystem.
The interplay between Bitcoin, gold, and emerging trends like RWAs will undoubtedly shape the future of the digital asset landscape. Staying informed and adapting to evolving market dynamics will be crucial for investors seeking to navigate this complex and rapidly changing environment.
Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView