Bitcoin Rallies as Trump's Policies Promise GDP Boost and Controlled Oil Prices
The cryptocurrency market, particularly Bitcoin, is experiencing a surge in optimism fueled by a compelling analysis from industry veteran Arthur Hayes. His recent essay, “Suavemente,” posits that the current geopolitical and economic landscape, specifically the US approach to energy policy under a potential second Trump administration, is structurally bullish for Bitcoin and high-beta cryptocurrencies. This isn't about traditional geopolitics, Hayes argues, but rather a calculated electoral strategy focused on maximizing voter wellbeing through a delicate balance of economic growth and stable energy costs. This article delves into Hayes’ reasoning, exploring the potential implications for Bitcoin and the broader crypto market.
The Electoral Math Behind the Venezuela Play
Hayes’ core argument centers on the idea that US political outcomes are determined by a narrow margin of voters who prioritize economic stability above all else. He believes that the median voter is primarily concerned with the economy, and specifically, “food and energy” inflation. The US’s increasing involvement in controlling Venezuelan oil production, therefore, isn’t about asserting geopolitical dominance, but about manipulating oil prices to benefit the American electorate.
“The question is, does the American colonization of Venezuela make Bitcoin/crypto number go up or down?” Hayes asks, framing the situation through a purely market-driven lens. He contends that US politicians will prioritize policies that stimulate nominal GDP growth while simultaneously keeping energy costs in check, especially gasoline prices, which he identifies as a key indicator of voter sentiment.
The 10% Rule and its Market Implications
Hayes highlights a “10% rule” – when the national average price of gasoline rises 10% or more in the three months preceding an election compared to January of the same year, a shift in government control is likely. This dynamic creates two distinct market regimes: one with rising nominal GDP and oil prices, and another with rising nominal GDP and stable or declining oil prices. The latter scenario, Hayes believes, is the most favorable for Bitcoin.
He explains that controlling oil supply allows policymakers to “run the economy hot” – stimulating credit expansion and boosting nominal GDP – without triggering the voter backlash associated with high gasoline prices. This creates a unique environment where the conditions are ripe for risk asset appreciation, including Bitcoin.
Why Controlled Oil Prices Benefit Bitcoin
Hayes’ bullish outlook for Bitcoin isn’t based on the inherent qualities of the cryptocurrency itself, but rather on the constraints that oil prices place on monetary policy. He argues that Bitcoin, as a “purest monetary abstraction” due to its energy-intensive proof-of-work mining process, is largely unaffected by fluctuations in energy prices. Miners will adjust to parallel shifts in energy costs, meaning the price of oil only matters insofar as it influences political decisions regarding money printing.
“Because of the energy used running computers engaged in proof of work mining, Bitcoin is the purest monetary abstraction there is,” Hayes writes. “Therefore, the price of energy is irrelevant to the price of Bitcoin as all miners will face a parallel shift up or down in the price at the same time. The price of oil only matters regarding its ability to force politicians to stop printing money.”
Macro Signals: The 10-Year Treasury Yield and MOVE Index
Hayes identifies key macro signals that indicate potential policy pivots. He points to the 10-year Treasury yield and the MOVE Index (a measure of bond-market volatility) as indicators of stress in the financial system. When oil prices rise sufficiently to push yields “close to 5%,” volatility spikes, leverage unwinds, and policymakers are pressured to reverse course.
He draws parallels to the Trump administration’s tariff threats, where market turmoil and a spike in the MOVE Index prompted a swift policy reversal. This reflexivity, he argues, demonstrates the sensitivity of policymakers to market conditions and their willingness to intervene to maintain stability.
Bitcoin and Dollar Liquidity: A Strong Correlation
Hayes’ base case scenario involves aggressive credit expansion coupled with subdued or declining oil prices. He supports this view with his “USD Liquidity Conditions Index,” which demonstrates a strong correlation between Bitcoin’s price and dollar liquidity. “As the amount of dollars expands, the price of Bitcoin and certain cryptos will sky rocket,” he concludes.
This suggests that a continuation of loose monetary policy, facilitated by controlled oil prices, will provide a significant tailwind for Bitcoin and the broader crypto market. The ability to maintain economic growth without triggering inflationary pressures is key to sustaining this rally.
Positioning for the Future: Maelstrom’s Strategy
Hayes’ essay also reveals his fund, Maelstrom’s, current investment strategy. He states that Maelstrom entered 2026 with “almost maximum risk,” a low allocation to dollar-stablecoins, and a plan to rotate capital. This rotation involves selling Bitcoin to fund positions in privacy-focused cryptocurrencies and decentralized finance (DeFi) projects.
Specifically, he identifies Zcash (ZEC) as a “privacy beta” and discloses that Maelstrom is “already long a fuck ton of that” from 3Q25. This suggests a belief that privacy-focused cryptocurrencies will outperform Bitcoin as the market matures and regulatory scrutiny increases.
Current Market Status and Technical Analysis
As of press time, Bitcoin is trading at $93,841. Technical analysis suggests that Bitcoin needs to overcome the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level on the 1-week chart to confirm its bullish momentum. (See chart: BTCUSDT on TradingView.com)
The confluence of favorable macroeconomic conditions, strategic geopolitical maneuvering, and a clear investment strategy from a respected industry figure paints a compelling picture for the future of Bitcoin and the crypto market. The potential for continued growth, driven by a delicate balance of economic stimulus and controlled energy costs, is significant.
Key Takeaways
- Arthur Hayes believes US policy towards Venezuela is driven by electoral math, not geopolitics.
- Controlling oil prices allows for economic stimulus without triggering inflation.
- Bitcoin benefits from this environment as it’s unaffected by oil price fluctuations.
- The 10-year Treasury yield and MOVE Index are key indicators to watch.
- Maelstrom is positioning for outperformance through privacy coins and DeFi.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Cryptocurrency investments are inherently risky, and investors should conduct their own research before making any decisions.