Bitcoin Hashrate Cools Despite Price Surge: What Does It Mean for Miners?
Early 2026 finds Bitcoin miners in a familiar, yet increasingly challenging situation. While Bitcoin’s price has shown resilience, the network hashrate is slipping from late-2025 highs, difficulty adjustments lag behind, and power costs remain the dominant factor determining which mining operations stay profitable and which are forced to curtail. This creates a fragile market where a single difficulty increase or a regional power price spike can quickly shift an “operating” fleet to “curtailing.” This article dives deep into the current state of Bitcoin mining, analyzing the factors impacting miner profitability and the potential implications for the network’s future.
Bitcoin Hashrate Decline: A Closer Look
Bitcoin’s network hashrate has experienced a cooling trend since its peak in late 2025, failing to consistently return to those levels even during periods of spot price strength. This divergence between price and hashrate is a key indicator of the pressures miners are facing.
JPMorgan estimated Bitcoin’s monthly average network hashrate rose 5% in October 2025 to 1,082 EH/s, marking a record monthly average. However, November saw a modest pullback to 1,074 EH/s, signaling a halt to the upward momentum. Daily estimates since late December have been volatile, fluctuating above and below the 1,000 EH/s threshold, suggesting miners are actively adjusting uptime rather than expanding capacity.
YCharts’ network data, sourced from Blockchain.com, confirms this trend, showing readings both below and above 1,000 EH/s around the mid-January rebound. This instability highlights the delicate balance miners are navigating.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Monthly-average hashrate (Oct. 2025) | 1,082 EH/s |
| Record monthly average (JPMorgan estimate) | |
| Monthly-average hashrate (Nov. 2025) | 1,074 EH/s |
| Mild pullback after the record (JPMorgan estimate) | |
| 7-day hashrate average (Jan. 2026) | 1,024 EH/s |
| Near-term cooling after late-2025 stress |
Hashprice, Not Just Bitcoin Price, Drives Shutdown Decisions
Miner behavior is increasingly dictated by hashprice – the expected daily revenue earned per unit of hashrate – rather than solely by the spot price of Bitcoin. Hashprice determines whether less efficient rigs can operate without incurring losses. A declining hashprice puts significant pressure on miners, even during Bitcoin price rebounds.
Luxor’s weekly update (Jan. 12, 2026) reported a slip in USD hashprice from $40.23 to $39.53 per PH/s/day, a level described as “close to, or at, breakeven for many miners.” This means the network can remain volatile even when Bitcoin’s price increases, as miner profitability remains compressed.
Luxor also noted a 2.9% decrease in Bitcoin’s price to around $91,132 during the same week, coinciding with the tightening hashprice, further stressing miners with high cost bases. The 7-day simple moving average for hashrate fell 2.8% from 1,054 EH/s to 1,024 EH/s.
The context of late 2025 is crucial. Difficulty reached an all-time high after a 6.31% positive adjustment on October 29th, lifting it to 155.97T. Hashprice subsequently weakened in November as fees and price failed to offset the increased difficulty, with the Hashrate Index showing hashprice falling to an all-time low near $36 per PH/day. The market has recovered somewhat since then, but the recovery has been uneven.
Hashprice chart (Source: Luxor)
A Quick Reality Check at the Machine Level
The sensitivity of miner profitability becomes clearer when translating hashprice into per-rig revenue and comparing it with electricity costs. Consider the following examples:
Bitmain lists the Antminer S19j Pro at 92 TH/s and 2,714 watts, while its S21 listing shows 200 TH/s and 3,500 watts. Using a hashprice of $38.2 per PH/s/day (roughly in line with Luxor’s six-month forward average) and the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s September 2025 industrial average electricity price of 9.02 cents/kWh, we can calculate the following:
| Rig | Hashrate | Power | Revenue/day (at $38.2 per PH/s/day) | Energy/day (at 9.02¢/kWh) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S19j Pro | 92 TH/s | 2,714 W | $3.51 | $5.88 |
| S21 | 200 TH/s | 3,500 W | $7.64 | $7.58 |
It’s important to note that many miners have better power rates, demand response revenue, and operational efficiency. However, the marginal miner drives churn, and at these hashprice levels, marginal fleets increasingly behave like flexible load rather than “always on” infrastructure.
Bitcoin miners are bleeding at $90,000, but the “death spiral” math hits a hard ceiling
Difficulty Adjustments: A Lagging Indicator
Difficulty adjusts only every 2,016 blocks (roughly every two weeks), meaning it doesn’t respond instantly to changes in spot BTC price or hashrate. This lag can force miners to absorb weak hashprice conditions for an entire epoch before the protocol recalibrates, compressing margins during drawdowns and delaying profitability rebounds.
This timing risk can “blindside” miners: a fleet may appear viable during a BTC rally, only to be squeezed when difficulty rises into the next window and per-hash revenue fails to keep pace. Early January 2026 data showed a difficulty adjustment down 1.20% to 146.4T, with projections pointing to a potential rise toward ~148.20T on January 22nd.
Bitcoin difficulty predicted to fall 5% as hashrate dips
Power Costs: The Critical Constraint
Hashprice indicates what the network is paying, but electricity costs determine the real-world operator’s bottom line. Luxor’s analysis translates compute revenue into implied revenue per MWh across fleet-efficiency tiers:
- Under 19 J/TH: $97/MWh
- 19–25 J/TH: $75/MWh
- 25–38 J/TH: $51/MWh
Electricity pricing varies significantly by region and contract type. The International Energy Agency cited U.S. wholesale electricity prices averaging around $48/MWh in the first half of 2025, while the European Union averaged about $90/MWh. EU 2026 electricity futures are around $80/MWh.
For miners in the 25–38 J/TH tier, implied compute revenue near $51/MWh means many sites can be pushed to curtailment quickly if delivered energy costs rise, hedges are unfavorable, or local congestion and fees increase all-in pricing. Negative pricing, becoming more common in Europe (8–9% of hours in H1 2025 in Germany, the Netherlands, and Spain), favors miners that can rapidly ramp up and down or run behind-the-meter generation.
Texas: A Key Jurisdiction and Policy Wildcard
Texas remains a crucial jurisdiction due to its grid policy and interconnection competition. Senate Bill 6 enables ERCOT to order large electricity users to shut down during emergencies. This applies to new loads of 75 MW or more connecting after December 31, 2025, while existing facilities are exempt.
ERCOT’s load request pipeline exceeded 230 GW in 2025, with over 70% tied to data centers. This increased demand raises the value of existing interconnections and stable contracts, making expansion harder unless curtailment terms and grid access are negotiated early.
What to Watch Next
Key areas to monitor include:
- The next one to two difficulty epochs: Will difficulty ease, relieving the squeeze, or intensify it?
- Hashprice stability: Luxor’s $39–$40 per PH/s/day zone is near breakeven, leaving little margin for error.
- Power volatility: Fleets in the 25–38 J/TH tier are particularly vulnerable to rising delivered costs.
- ERCOT curtailment risk: Emergency authority under SB 6 could lead to abrupt hashrate dips.
- Data center competition: Continued grid demand growth may constrain miners’ access to the lowest-cost capacity.
Currently, Luxor places hashprice at $39.53 per PH/s/day, with Bitcoin around $91,132 and a 7-day hashrate average of 1,024 EH/s. The key question remains: can miner economics support a return to the October 2025 hashrate of 1,082 EH/s, or will difficulty lag and power constraints keep the network in a cycle of start-stop operation?
Mentioned in this article
Bitcoin 
Luxor 
JPMorgan 
Bitmain