Ethereum Price Prediction: Is a Crash to $2,187 Imminent? A 2-Year Trend Analysis
Ethereum (ETH) has experienced a significant pullback in recent days, dropping below the crucial $3,000 mark and losing approximately 6.8% of its value in the last 24 hours. While the immediate reaction might suggest a struggle to reclaim the $3,000 support level, a deeper, long-term technical analysis paints a more nuanced picture. Crypto analyst Dona’s macro analysis suggests that this decline could be part of a larger, well-defined price framework, potentially leading to a bottom around $2,187. This article delves into the details of this analysis, exploring the factors that support this prediction and what it means for Ethereum investors.
Ethereum’s Two-Year Trading Range: A Macro Perspective
For nearly two years, Ethereum’s price action has largely been contained within a broad horizontal trading range. This range has seen two notable, albeit ultimately unsuccessful, attempts to break out. The first occurred below resistance in the first half of 2025, and the second above resistance in the latter half of the same year, briefly pushing the price to a high of $4,946 in August. On the weekly timeframe, the price consistently respects an upper boundary between $4,000 and $4,100, while finding consistent demand near the lower range support just above $2,100.
Understanding the Inverse Head and Shoulders Pattern
This price behavior has created a macro-scale structure resembling an inverse head and shoulders pattern. However, rather than signaling an immediate bullish breakout, the formation highlights Ethereum’s oscillation between these defined trendlines. Mid-range reactions are often key determinants of whether Ethereum will push towards resistance or retreat back towards support. This suggests a period of consolidation rather than a rapid price surge.
Source: Chart from Dona on X
Currently, Ethereum is trading within the mid-range of this two-year range. Therefore, the recent bearish movement can be interpreted not as a breakdown, but as a rotation towards the lower trendline within the established range. This perspective offers a more measured outlook for investors concerned about a complete market collapse.
Why $2,187 is a Critical Downside Target
Dona’s analysis places particular emphasis on the lower boundary of the range, around $2,187. This level has repeatedly acted as a robust bounce floor during previous downtrends, notably in 2024 and again in July 2025. This historical support suggests a strong likelihood of a price reversal at this level.
If Ethereum continues to trade below the current mid-range support around $3,000, the price could follow a familiar path of range rotation towards this lower boundary. This move could see Ethereum fall to as low as $2,187. While a 25% decline from the current price of $2,928 (as of this writing) would be concerning for bullish traders, it wouldn’t necessarily invalidate the broader structural outlook. Instead, it would simply complete another cycle within the established range, mirroring previous declines that ultimately led to a bounce and subsequent rally phase.
Implications for Short-Term Trading
One of the key takeaways from Dona’s analysis is the expectation of subdued price action in the near term. Outside of range-bound trades, taking strong directional positions may be less attractive as liquidity diminishes towards the end of the year. This suggests a period of consolidation and sideways trading. From this perspective, the next significant price move is more likely to occur in January 2026.
Factors Influencing Ethereum’s Price
Several factors are currently influencing Ethereum’s price, contributing to the recent downturn. These include:
- Macroeconomic Conditions: Global economic uncertainty and rising interest rates continue to weigh on risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.
- Regulatory Scrutiny: Increased regulatory scrutiny from governments worldwide creates uncertainty and can dampen investor enthusiasm.
- Competition from Other Layer-1 Blockchains: The emergence of competing Layer-1 blockchains, such as Solana and Avalanche, is challenging Ethereum’s dominance in the smart contract platform space.
- Ethereum ETF Approval Uncertainty: While the potential approval of a spot Ethereum ETF is a positive catalyst, the timing and likelihood of approval remain uncertain.
Technical Indicators Supporting the $2,187 Target
Beyond the two-year trading range analysis, several technical indicators support the potential for a move towards $2,187. These include:
- Fibonacci Retracement Levels: Key Fibonacci retracement levels align with the $2,187 support level, suggesting a potential area of strong buying pressure.
- Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD): The MACD indicator is currently showing bearish momentum, further supporting the possibility of a continued downtrend.
- Relative Strength Index (RSI): The RSI is approaching oversold territory, which could signal a potential buying opportunity, but also indicates further downside potential before a reversal.
What Does This Mean for Ethereum Investors?
The analysis suggests that Ethereum investors should prepare for potential further downside in the short term. However, it’s crucial to remember that this decline could be part of a larger, predictable pattern. Investors should consider the following:
- Dollar-Cost Averaging (DCA): DCA can help mitigate risk by spreading purchases over time, regardless of price fluctuations.
- Long-Term Perspective: Ethereum remains a leading blockchain platform with significant potential for future growth. Investors with a long-term perspective should focus on the fundamental value of the technology.
- Risk Management: Implement appropriate risk management strategies, such as setting stop-loss orders, to protect capital.
ETH is currently trading at $2,929 on the 1D chart | Source: ETHUSDT on Tradingview.com
Featured image from Freepik, chart from Tradingview.com
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Cryptocurrency investments are inherently risky, and investors should conduct their own research before making any decisions.