Bitmain's Price Cuts: Is the Bitcoin Mining "Golden Rule" Dead?
The Bitcoin mining landscape is undergoing a significant shift. On December 23rd, Bitmain, a leading manufacturer of ASIC miners, announced price reductions on its Bitcoin mining rigs. This move comes after a period of declining miner revenue per unit of hashrate in November 2025, signaling a challenging environment for miners. The discounts, extending to current-generation hydro and immersion products, are occurring in a cycle where Bitcoin’s price strength hasn’t translated into the expected mining margin expansion. This raises a critical question: is the traditional “golden rule” of Bitcoin mining – that rising BTC prices automatically lead to increased ASIC demand and profitability – becoming obsolete?
The Current State of Bitcoin Mining Economics
According to TheMinerMag, a container bundle for the S19 XP+ Hydro (approximately 19 J/TH) is now priced around $4/TH, with shipments scheduled to begin in January 2026. Internal price lists reveal even lower quotes, as low as $3/TH for some S19 Hydro variants and $7–$8/TH for newer S21 immersion or hydro models before applying any coupons. Bitmain is further incentivizing purchases by bundling rigs with hosting packages, offering power rates between 5.5–7.0¢/kWh plus a 0.3¢ management fee across various locations.
Key Bitcoin Miner Metrics (November/December 2025)
- Bitmain Promo Price (Bundle): ~$4/TH for S19 XP+ Hydro container bundle (Dec. 23 promo), shipping from Jan. 2026
- Quoted Range (Internal Lists): As low as ~$3/TH (some S19 Hydro), ~$7–$8/TH (some S21 hydro/immersion), before coupons
- Hosting Rate Range (Bundled Offers): ~5.5–7.0¢/kWh + ~0.3¢ management fee
- Hashprice (Nov. 2025 Average): $39.82/PH/day
- Hashprice (Nov. 22, 2025): $35.06/PH/day (new low)
- Network Difficulty (Nov. 2025 Average): ~153.33T (+2.7% m/m)
Compressed Hashprice and ASIC Demand
The core issue driving Bitmain’s price cuts is the compression of hashprice – effectively, revenue per unit of hashrate. Luxor’s November 2025 data shows an average hashprice of $39.82/PH/day, with a low of $35.06 on November 22nd. This means miners are earning less for each terahash of computing power they deploy. At $40/PH/day, a 200 TH/s rig generates approximately $8 per day. However, with a power draw of around 3.8 kW (assuming 19 J/TH) and an energy cost of $0.06/kWh, the daily operating cost is about $5.47, leaving a profit margin of only $2.53 before factoring in facility fees, repairs, downtime, pool fees, and potential curtailments.
This slim margin translates to a payback period of roughly 316 days for a $800 (200 TH/s) machine. Miners are now prioritizing Internal Rate of Return (IRR) thresholds over scarcity narratives when evaluating purchases. This explains why discounts on newer products aren’t immediately triggering repricing – the market is focused on achieving acceptable returns, not simply acquiring the latest hardware.
A Shift in the Supply Side of the Market
Unlike previous cycles characterized by long lead times and fragmented distribution, the current market resembles a more industrial landscape. Manufacturers like Bitmain are managing turnover amidst competition from the secondary market and a wider range of product tiers. This increased competition and more efficient supply chains are contributing to the price pressure.
Historical data from Digital Mining Solutions illustrates this shift. Hardware in the 25–38 J/TH range traded around $105/TH in November 2021, but had fallen to around $12/TH by March 2024, even as Bitcoin reached an all-time high during that period. This demonstrates a significant decline in “hashrate purchasing power” as network hashrate and difficulty increase faster than fee income.
The Rise of Bundled Solutions
Bitmain’s strategy of bundling hosting with machines highlights a crucial change: scarcity has shifted from hardware to efficient megawatts. Securing reliable and predictably priced power is now the primary constraint for many miners. Bundled solutions, offering power procurement, deployment, and operations, are becoming increasingly attractive to price-sensitive buyers. Containerized deployments further streamline the process and reduce logistical challenges.
Capital Allocation Beyond Bitcoin Mining
Another factor influencing ASIC demand is the growing trend of capital allocation outside of pure Bitcoin mining. Publicly traded mining companies are increasingly rewarded by investors for diversifying into AI and high-performance computing. Several miners have already pursued or are evaluating AI-related data center strategies to broaden their revenue streams. Investor enthusiasm for large AI data center transactions has also boosted miner equities, incentivizing them to invest in infrastructure capable of supporting multiple revenue sources.
Forward Pricing and the USD Constraint
Luxor’s November review revealed a concerning trend in forward pricing. USD-denominated hashprice for December 2025 through April 2026 fell by 16–18% from November 3rd to December 1st, while BTC-denominated forwards increased. This divergence is significant because most miners operate with USD expenses. The forward curve reflects continued pressure on USD cash flow, even with improved BTC terms.
Bitcoin hashprice forward curve (Source: Luxor)
The Future of Bitcoin Mining: A New Paradigm?
Whether ASIC pricing will regain its previous cycle’s volatility now depends less on Bitcoin’s price action and more on a sustained increase in transaction fees and net hashprice following difficulty adjustments. Without a durable fee regime that significantly boosts revenue per TH for extended periods, buyers will likely continue to treat $/TH as a payback instrument. This could push manufacturers towards lower entry costs, shorter delivery times, and bundled operating support.
Bitmain’s January 2026 shipping window for its discounted bundles will be a crucial test. It will reveal how much of the market is willing to commit to expansion at sub-$10/TH pricing within a $35–$50/PH/day hashprice range. The traditional “golden rule” of Bitcoin mining may be evolving, replaced by a more pragmatic approach focused on profitability, efficiency, and diversification.
Mentioned in this article: Bitcoin, Bitmain, Luxor
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