Did Bitcoin *Really* Hit $100,000 in 2025? The Inflation-Adjusted Truth
On the day Bitcoin finally surpassed $100,000, the internet exploded. Screenshots flooded social media, rocket emojis filled group chats, and old predictions from 2021 were dusted off. It felt like a long-awaited milestone had finally been achieved. But a quietly circulated chart, amplified by figures like Alex Thorn, Head of Research at Galaxy, offered a sobering reality check. When adjusted for inflation, using 2020 dollars, Bitcoin never actually crossed the $100,000 mark. It peaked just below, around $99,848 in real terms. This isn’t a dismissal of Bitcoin’s progress, but a crucial reminder that the value of money is constantly shifting, and nominal prices can be deceiving.
The Illusion of a Round Number
Most people understand that inflation increases prices. However, the less obvious impact is that it alters the meaning of a dollar. A $100 bill in 2020 doesn’t buy the same amount of goods and services as a $100 bill in late 2025. They don’t represent the same amount of work, rent, or time. Since Bitcoin is primarily traded in dollars, its price milestones are tied to the dollar’s value at that specific moment, not the dollar’s value in our memories.
How Inflation Distorts the Picture
Using the US CPI for CPI-U, the average level in 2020 was approximately 258.8, while by late 2025 it had risen to the mid-320s. This gap signifies a substantial loss of purchasing power for the dollar since 2020. To translate today’s prices into 2020 dollars, you generally multiply by around 0.8. Therefore, $100,000 in late 2025 dollars equates to roughly $80,000 in 2020 dollars.
The celebrated milestone was real in nominal terms, but its significance is diminished when viewed through an inflation-adjusted lens. To achieve a $100,000 value equivalent to 2020 purchasing power, Bitcoin’s nominal price would need to reach closer to $125,000. Interestingly, Bitcoin’s cycle peak did briefly touch that neighborhood, as tracked by Reuters, with coverage clustering around the $125,000 range.
Bitcoin price chart (Source: Reuters)
Why This Matters for Bitcoin’s Future
Inflation-adjusted Bitcoin charts were once a niche exercise. Now, they represent a crucial reality check, particularly in this market cycle. This cycle has been defined by institutional adoption through spot Bitcoin ETFs, fluctuating macro narratives, and a market seemingly tethered to interest rate expectations. Viewing Bitcoin’s price in real terms forces a conversation institutions are already having: real returns.
Pension funds and treasury desks don’t prioritize nominal gains if inflation is high and risk-free rates are attractive. Bitcoin, to mature as a macro asset, must be judged by the same standards: what is the return after inflation, and how does it compare to alternatives? While celebrating round numbers feels like progress, it’s essential to consider the inflation-adjusted perspective.
Bitcoin’s recovery from $16,000 to six figures is significant. However, the inflation-adjusted lens reveals that the market hasn’t surpassed its previous psychological barriers as much as headlines suggest. This isn’t bearish; it’s simply a more accurate assessment. Furthermore, the “real” $100,000 milestone continues to rise each month.
The Complication of CPI Data
The debate surrounding inflation adjustment gained traction due to disruptions in CPI data collection. During the 2025 lapse in appropriations, the Bureau of Labor Statistics temporarily suspended CPI operations, leading to the cancellation of October’s CPI release – a first. This created a situation where the market attempted to assess Bitcoin’s real-terms performance with incomplete data.
Even with available data, choices exist regarding methodology – seasonally adjusted vs. not seasonally adjusted CPI, annual averages vs. specific monthly bases, headline CPI vs. other variants. These choices can yield slightly different results, especially when dealing with a narrow margin like the $99,848 vs. $100,000 debate. The key takeaway is that the inflation-adjusted claim isn’t a simple binary; it’s a nuanced discussion.
Market Reaction and On-Chain Data
The market’s post-peak hangover provides insight into the lasting power of the $100,000 milestone. Bitcoin experienced a significant pullback after the October high, falling roughly 30% by December. The initial euphoria surrounding the six-figure price point didn’t translate into sustained stability.
Institutional activity mirrored this sentiment. US spot Bitcoin ETF AUM peaked around $169.5 billion on October 6th and declined to approximately $120.7 billion by December 4th, according to CryptoSlate’s data compilation. While price impact plays a role, the downward trend is significant. This reinforces the importance of the inflation-adjusted framing. The market briefly approached the nominal price needed to match the 2020 $100,000 level but failed to sustain it.
However, beneath the surface, Bitcoin’s on-chain data paints a more resilient picture. The realized cap reached a record of around $1.125 trillion this year, indicating that more coins are held at higher cost bases than ever before. Realized cap isn’t a foolproof indicator, but it reflects increasing adoption and long-term holding. This suggests the network is absorbing capital at higher levels over time.
Looking Ahead: Three Potential Scenarios
The question now isn’t whether Bitcoin hit $100,000, but what needs to happen for it to achieve meaningfully new real highs. Here are three potential scenarios for the next year:
- Disinflation and Easing: If inflation cools as projected and the Fed begins cutting rates, the nominal hurdle for real milestones will rise more slowly. A return to previous nominal peaks will carry more real meaning.
- Sticky Inflation: If inflation remains higher than expected, Bitcoin may reach new nominal highs that don’t translate into significant gains in purchasing power. Higher real yields could also act as a headwind.
- ETF Demand Reacceleration: A resurgence in ETF demand could drive Bitcoin through inflation-adjusted hurdles, even in a challenging macro environment. The key will be a shift in ETF flows and adoption patterns.
The Human Element: Inflation and Financial Goals
People don’t get emotional about CPI indices; they get emotional about milestones – a first home, a six-figure salary, a retirement number, or a Bitcoin price target. Inflation is the silent force that makes you achieve a goal and still feel behind because the goal itself has moved. This chart resonates because it highlights this reality. Bitcoin is often presented as a hedge against this erosion of purchasing power, so it’s ironically fitting that the most famous fiat milestone in Bitcoin history has been quietly rewritten by inflation.
The next time Bitcoin hits a round number, the first question should be: what does that number actually buy?
Bitcoin Market Data
At the time of press 11:38 am UTC on Dec. 23, 2025, Bitcoin is ranked #1 by market cap and the price is down 2.48% over the past 24 hours. Bitcoin has a market capitalization of $1.75 trillion with a 24-hour trading volume of $44.57 billion. Learn more about Bitcoin ›
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